EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. — Two straight weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have gone to overtime. Two straight weeks, their opponents have won the coin toss and taken the ball.
And if it's possible to do such a thing, Vikings coach Leslie Frazier breathed easier than he might have a few years ago, before a rule change barred a team from winning with a field goal on the opening possession.
"When it was sudden death, it was completely different," Frazier said this week. "Now, you're thinking if you're on defense – 'can't let them get a touchdown.' Field goal's not going to kill you, but you can't let them get a touchdown."
There have been 38 overtime games since the NFL instituted a "modified sudden death" system for the playoffs after the 2010 season and for all games starting in 2012, guaranteeing both teams the opportunity to possess the ball unless the team receiving the opening kickoff scores a TD.
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Only six of those games (15.8%) have ended on a first-drive touchdown. Twenty-one teams punted, six turned over the ball via interception, fumble or downs, and just five kicked field goals that would have won the game under the old rules, only to go on defense instead.
But several games in recent weeks have renewed debate about overtime strategy as well as criticism of the conservative coaching mindset that seems to confuse some in the clutch.
"The analytic explanation for years has been coaches are just looking to shift the blame," said Chase Stuart, owner of the statistical website FootballPerspective.com.
"If they miss the field goal, it's on the kicker. If they throw an interception, it's on the coach for calling a pass play instead of kicking. It's sort of a self-preservation mode that coaches enter."
It's one thing for New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick to win the toss, take the wind – the first coach in the modified overtime era to do so – and hand over the ball to Peyton Manning and a high-powered Denver Broncos offense that largely had struggled in the second half.
That decision was unconventional but also defensible, since it's tough to drive the length of the field for a touchdown in three-down increments and there is a potential advantage in having the ball second, knowing you have four downs to keep moving towards a tying or go-ahead score.
"Obviously, the ability to defer has changed what happens at the beginning of the game," Broncos coach John Fox said. "The opportunity to get a possession in overtime if it's a field goal definitely has changed it."
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But consider Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy's decision to pass on a fourth-and-goal try from the 2 against the Vikings on the first possession of overtime Nov. 24.
McCarthy said the next day he considered running the ball on third and fourth down, but once a third-down pass fell incomplete, "I think you have to kick the field goal there. If I would've been in a four-down mindset, I would've ran on third down."
Never mind the value of the opportunity to either win the game on the spot or give the Vikings the ball at their own 2-yard line – in some ways, a lesser gamble on a struggling Packers defense, based on the change in field position after a kickoff.
McCarthy settled for a 20-yard Mason Crosby field goal that would have ended the game under the old rules. Minnesota got a chance to match, drove 63 yards in 12 plays and got a 35-yard field goal from Blair Walsh to tie the game at 26, which is how it ended.
"We've thought about it," Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. "It depends on the environment that you're playing in. I think a great example that was demonstrated (by Belichick) was that the elements can be a factor.
"We'd certainly consider all of that. We're not sitting here with our head in the sand on this one."
Neither is Chicago Bears coach Marc Trestman, who often cites statistics in explaining his decisions. But Trestman's controversial decision to kick a field goal on second-and-7 Sunday showed even progressive-thinking coaches can fall back on a conservative approach in key spots.
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It was the third possession of overtime when Robbie Gould's 47-yard attempt drifted wide right, giving the Vikings another chance after a facemask penalty wiped out Walsh's apparent winner from 39 yards on the previous possession.
Trestman said Monday he didn't regret kicking on second down, admitting it wasn't based on analytics but rather Gould's accuracy, ball position and fear of a turnover or penalty that could force a longer attempt.
"Once we got inside the 30-yard line, we were going to kick it," Trestman told news reporters. "We were (facing) second-and-7, and the ball's in the middle of the field, well within Robbie's range."
Frazier understands the thinking, though he waited to kick until third down the previous possession, giving the Vikings another play – it lost 3 yards – to set up the retry Walsh missed wide left from 57.
But "range" should never come into the conversation on second down, Stuart said, since every yard improves the chances of the kick being converted and the chances are far greater of a miss than a penalty or turnover.
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For whatever reason, probabilities went out the window in that moment for Trestman, just as McCarthy passed on the possibility of improving his chance of winning to 100% by gaining 2 yards or forcing the Vikings to drive 60-plus yards for their own field-goal attempt.
The numbers arguably were against Belichick, too – teams possessing the ball first in modified overtime were 20-13-2 at the time and now are 20-16-2 – but the elements were a greater factor than in most games and he didn't have to worry about Manning generating three points, only six.
"We just had to keep them out of the end zone, obviously," Belichick said after the game. "I just felt like the wind would be an advantage if we could keep them out of the end zone on that first drive."
As thinking on the new system progresses, the big debate may shift from whether to go for the sort of first-possession opportunities McCarthy passed up against the Vikings to whether teams getting back the ball after a field goal should go for the win if faced with fourth-and-short as well.
Of the five teams that kicked a field goal on the opening possession of overtime under the modified system, two made a stop on the next possession, one forced a turnover and two gave up field goals. None allowed a touchdown on the ensuing drive, and only the Packers didn't win.
"There really is the benefit to being aggressive here that's not at the end of regulation," Stuart said. "I don't know if we'll see it or not in coaches, but we should."
PHOTOS: Ranking Week 14's best games
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16. Texans at Jaguars: A Thursday Night Football matchup to answer the important question: Who truly wants that No. 1 overall draft pick in May?
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15. Bills at Buccaneers: The rookie quarterback battle of E.J. Manuel vs. Mike Glennon is one of the few story lines worth watching.
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14. Browns at Patriots: Josh Gordon has given fans reason to watch Cleveland down the stretch, while the Patriots try to march toward the top seed in the AFC.
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13. Chiefs at Redskins: Washington has already been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Chiefs need to keep pace with the Broncos in the AFC West.
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12. Raiders at Jets: Matt McGloin vs. Geno Smith both have plenty to prove if they want to remain starters beyond this year.
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11. Falcons at Packers: Aaron Rodgers' availability could be the difference as the Packers try to stay afloat for a postseason berth.
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10. Rams at Cardinals: The NFC West's bottom two teams showed signs of revitalized play in November.
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9. Giants at Chargers: Nine years after a draft-day trade, Eli Manning vs. Philip Rivers still makes for good TV.
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8. Vikings at Ravens: Baltimore can continue its surge toward an AFC wild card berth after a disappointing start to the season.
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7. Titans at Broncos: Tennessee might not be up to the task of keeping pace with the Broncos, but Peyton Manning has become appointment viewing.
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6. Dolphins at Steelers: Beating Ryan Tannehill and Co. would keep the Steelers' resurgence in motion, while a loss would deflate their hopes for salvaging a playoff spot.
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5. Colts at Bengals: The AFC's likely third- and fourth-seeded teams still have plenty to prove in the season's final month.
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4. Cowboys at Bears: Monday night's game will help shape the races in both the NFC East and North.
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3. Lions at Eagles: Plenty of points should fly when two of the NFL's hottest offenses meet.
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2. Seahawks at 49ers: The pressure is on San Francisco after a Week 2 drubbing in Seattle in this season's first matchup of NFC West rivals.
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1. Panthers at Saints: NFC South supremacy is on the line when Cam Newton and the red-hot Panthers are pitted against Drew Brees and the Saints.
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